Since its launch two weeks ago, over 1,400 eligible Toronto voters have participated in the Toronto Election Study (TES) and researchers have already discovered some very telling trends based on the raw data, including the likelihood that Rob Ford’s support will transfer to his brother Doug.
The study, led by political scientists from across the country, aims to deliver a detailed understanding of the attitudes and behaviour of voters and non-voters in the 2014 Toronto municipal election.
“These results remain tentative findings given that we are using raw data and have yet to complete the study,” explains Laura Stephenson, an associate professor at Western University’s Department of Political Science and one of the TES investigators. “Nonetheless, they provide some interesting insight into how Torontonians currently feel about the mayoral race.”
The fact that Doug Ford joined the mayoral race on the last possible day to file, replacing his ailing brother Rob Ford, was an obvious game changer, adds Stephenson.
“Our data gives us insight into who makes up Ford Nation. If voters see Doug as a substitute for Rob, which our preliminary results suggest they do, this provides an indication of where support for Doug may come from,” explains Stephenson.
Michael McGregor, an assistant professor of Politics and International Studies at Bishop’s University, is the Principal Investigator of the Toronto Election Study.
“In our sample, just over a quarter of respondents indicate that they would have supported Rob if he was running for mayor” explains McGregor. “Among those not born in Canada his support is higher, as it is among men, those who attended technical or community college and those who didn’t vote in 2010.”
Preliminary results from the TES also show that those who rarely take public transit are more likely to have supported Rob Ford than those who use transit frequently. McGregor adds that attitudes are also related to hypothetical support for Rob Ford.
A majority of individuals who “strongly agreed” with the following TES statements would have supported Rob Ford:
- Behaviour in private lives is irrelevant to the capabilities of politicians.
- The media has given Rob Ford a harder time than he deserves.
- People who make mistakes in their private lives should be given a second chance.
Rob Ford also has strong support among those who identify “property taxes” as the most important issue in the election and among those who think “the City of Toronto should spend less on services to lower taxes.”
The key question now, says McGregor, is will Ford nation support Doug Ford?
“We asked respondents how similar the policies of the two brothers are and over 85 per cent thought they were all or mostly the same,” says McGregor. “In terms of personal appeal, the two brothers are also rated quite similarly. On a 0-100 scale, where 0 means the respondents really dislike him and 100 means they really like him, Rob Ford scores, on average, 36. Doug’s support is similar, at just over 34.”
So what do these results tell us?
“The Toronto voting public thinks the policies of Rob and Doug Ford are similar and that is reflected in their ratings of each brother,” explains Aaron Moore, an assistant professor of Political Science at the University of Winnipeg and a TES investigator.
“Although we’re still weeks away from election day, the basis of Ford Nation gives us some idea of where Doug Ford’s support may come from. We’ll be able to test this expectation with our full data after the election.”
The TES website (www.torontoelectionstudy.com) is updated regularly and those interested can also follow the project on Twitter: @TOelectionstudy
The TES is funded by the Social Science and Humanities Research Council.
MEDIA CONTACT: Jeff Renaud, Senior Media Relations Officer, 519-661-2111, ext. 85165, jrenaud9@uwo.ca, @jeffrenaud99
